Why Is Keeping Global Warming Under 1.5 Degrees Celsius Important?

1.5 degrees Celsius (33.8°F). Do you know what scientists mean when they said we need to keep warming under 1.5℃? I wasn’t sure. I know, some kind of tree hugger! So I found out.

How did the 1.5 degrees Celsius target come about?

The first recorded mention of keeping global warming under a limit was in 1975 by an economist William Nordhaus. The warming limit suggested was 2℃ from the pre-industrial average temperature. For a long time, scientists took that to be the target.

However, small island countries and low-lying countries commissioned research and found that a rise of 2℃ will cause their territories to be overwhelmed by flooding when sea level rises. 1.5℃, on the other hand, would give them a fighting chance.

In 2015, during the climate negotiations in Paris, the 1.5 degrees Celsius target become a reality.

195 countries came together and agreed upon a target: to keep the average global temperature increase below 1.5℃ from pre-industrial average to mitigate climate change.

Countries that signed on to the Paris Agreement are required to present national plans to reduce emissions and to keep their greenhouse gas emissions public and up-to-date. And these national plans are to be reviewed every 5 years. However, the agreement isn’t legally binding.

Think of it as a group of people coming together to hit a common goal. They’re supposed to be open with each other’s progress and share their plans with each other, but they won’t be punished if they don’t meet the targets.

A beautiful part of the agreement is that it recognizes climate injustice.

Developed countries are responsible for more of the carbon emission, yet the developing and underdeveloped countries suffer more of the consequences. So developed countries are encouraged to contribute funds to help countries with lesser resources meet their climate goals, but they’re not legally required to do so.

Does that mean our climate crisis is being managed?

Unfortunately, no. Despite the 2015 Paris Agreement and IPCC’s in-depth report about the effects of global warming at 1.5℃, not enough is being done to reduce our carbon emission. Most of the world is still heavily reliant on fossil fuels. In fact, fossil fuel consumption is still on the rise.

We’re set to use up our carbon budget in 8 years if we continued at this rate. And that means that we won’t be able to keep warming under 1.5℃. According to a Vox article, unless we’re able to reduce emissions by 15% a year, we’ll also not be able to meet our target.

UNEP: 1.5C climate target ‘slipping out of reach’ | @hausfath @robbie_andrew https://t.co/dGUfgnvRXP pic.twitter.com/mRj7yZrsyq— Carbon Brief (@CarbonBrief) December 23, 2019

Where are we now in terms of global warming?

If you’re reading this post, I’m sure you’ve seen the effects of climate change taking place all around you. Last year, we saw hurricanes, floods, storms, and wildfires wreaking havoc all over the world, costing thousands of lives and $100 billion worth of damage.

This year, we watched Australia‘s massive wildfires rage.

The capital of Indonesia began the year with a bad flood after intense rainfalls the city hasn’t seen in at least 24 years. By the way, experts estimate that Jakarta may be submerged by 2050, spurring the Indonesian government to choose a new capital for the country.

Scientists recently found warm water under the Thwaites glacier in Antarctica and ice sheets in Greenland. Antarctica just hit a record high of 18℃/65°F.

Winters in many places have been seasonably warm, while summers dangerously hot. Huge swarms of locusts have attacked East Africa – researchers believe climate change aggravated the infestation.

And the UK is being battered by Storm Ciara.

With all these changes happening globally, we’re only at about 1 degree Celsius warmer than preindustrial times with carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere at about 400ppm.

To keep warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius, researchers estimate that we’ll need to keep the atmospheric CO2 concentration at 430ppm. We’ll eventually need to achieve zero-emission.

If you’re unsure why carbon emission is linked to global warming, you may want to read this.

What would warming of more than 1.5℃ mean to us?

As we can see, climate change is already happening at 1℃ warming. As the globe gets warmer, the freak weather events we’re experiencing will get worse too.

One post can’t cover all the effects, but let’s just say everything we need for survival will be affected. Here’s a brief picture.

Sea Level Rises

For a start, the ice sheets and glaciers that have been melting will continue melting faster as days and nights get warmer in the polar regions. It’s estimated that 4.8 million square km of permafrost will thaw. This will set off a chain of events that exacerbate climate change.

Sea levels will rise as the ice sheets and glaciers melt and seawater expands, resulting in floods and saltwater intrusions, making freshwater unsuitable for drinking. The floods could affect the homes of 300 million people.

Ocean warming and acidification

As oceans warm, more carbon dioxide dissolves in it. This will acidify the ocean, in turn harming marine life and tipping marine ecosystems off balance. Coral reefs will decline by 70 to 90% while fisheries will see global annual catch decline by 1.5 million tonnes.

Food and water insecurity

Marine food sources wouldn’t be the only food source that’s affected either. Floods, droughts, wildfires, and changes in temperature, are all events that could affect our food security either by destroying them or affecting their growth and production. In Australia, high temperatures have render the bulls in some parts of the country infertile.

For water resources, plastic and chemical pollution aside, the challenges will include droughts, water pollution from wildfires’ ashes and saltwater intrusion. As glaciers that provide fresh water to some communities melt, these communities will find themselves with a water shortage too.

Loss of Biodiversity

4% of land will experience a biome shift, where tundras turn into forests and forests turn into savannahs. We’ll experience species loss in animals that can’t relocate and adapt to the changing climate and biome shifts. 6% of insects, 8% of plants and 4% of vertebrates will lose half of their climatically determined geographic range.

Bad economy and increased poverty

Needless to say, economies will be affected as more money is diverted to disaster-relief and rebuilding. The difficulties in farming and fishing created by climate change will affect the livelihood of millions of people too.

Heatwaves, drought, wildfires, droughts, hurricanes and other climate disasters will claim homes and lives.

In California, folks with lower incomes who can’t afford home insurance or relocation find it a lot harder to recover from the disaster when their homes are destroyed. Regardless of location, a disaster could easily tip low-income communities into poverty.

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What can we do?

Some experts are of the opinion that it’ll be difficult for us to meet the 2℃ target, let alone the 1.5℃ target, but we have to try. The picture of the climate crisis is much worse at 2℃. You can read about it here. Think all the points above plus natural disasters we’ve witnessed but way worse.

While our scientists work on developing technology that can help us to alleviate climate change, we need to put in our fair share of work. If you’ve been following this blog, you’ll know what we need to do. Here’s a recap!

Vote wisely

I can’t stress how important this is. Wherever you are, make sure you vote for a government that understands that climate crisis is an enormous threat to humanity’s survival, livelihood, and stability.

Although we can do our part in the crisis, governments can push for quicker changes and roll out more effective plans to bring about more widespread results. We need scale and speed to make up for all our lost time.

Vote for a government that promises to take constructive and radical actions to fight the climate crisis. It’s true that they may not follow through with their promises, but a climate-denying government is worse.

Remember that though the economy matters, if we ignored the climate crisis, the strongest economy will mean nothing in the end.

Protect our forests and oceans

Trees, plants and, grass, marine plants, and planktons are our carbon sinks. We need to protect them. They’re nature’s way of extracting carbon from the atmosphere and storing them away. We cannot afford to continue with unregulated deforestation.

Support causes that protect oceans and forests. Use sustainably sourced paper products, and choose products made with sustainable palm oil as much as you can.

Of course, you can also plant trees and take part in beach clean-ups.

Be responsible with your resources and reduce your waste production

Be it electricity, water, toilet paper, food or smartphones, be responsible when using them. Being responsible and sustainable in the way we use our resources helps to reduce our carbon footprint and waste production.

Support renewable energy

As much as you can, divest from banks and organizations that support the fossil fuel industries, and support politicians, businesses and organizations that are in favor of developing renewable energies.

Keep educating ourselves about our climate and keep talking about climate change

The more I learned, the more I realized I know nothing about our beautiful and intelligent world. The more we know about nature, the better we can respond to it. We can’t win a fight we don’t understand.

The world is full of distracting things that are constantly taking people’s attention away from this issue, keep talking to your friends and family about it.

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Does it seem very overwhelming? Many people I’ve talked to aren’t optimistic, but we’re all hoping for the best. What I’d like to remind you is that even if we can’t hit the 1.5 degrees Celsius target, our efforts can still help to keep warming under 2 degrees Celsius, or 2.5 or 3.

Every effort to mitigate climate change is going to help, so please don’t feel like your individual action is fruitless. It’s precisely individual actions on a collective scale that will help us turn the tide.

Take climate action today.